Shop Price Inflation Rises to 2.1% in October 2026: What the BRC Figures Mean for Small Retailers
UK shop price inflation rose to 2.1% in October 2026 from 1.4% in September, according to the BRC-NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, with non-food inflation almost doubling to 1.7%.
By Entrepreneur Group · Published
Shop price inflation in the UK rose to 2.1% in October 2026, up from 1.4% in September, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor published on 27 October. Food inflation rose to 2.9% and non-food inflation jumped from 0.8% to 1.7%, with prices collected in the first week of October.
The BRC says this is the highest rate of shop price inflation in around two and a half years. For founders running shops, e-commerce brands or businesses that buy from retailers, the figures show cost pressure moving further into everyday goods just as the Autumn Budget is delivered.
What the October figures show
The BRC release covers prices collected between 1 and 7 October 2026. Its annual figures are:
- All shop prices: 2.1%, up from 1.4% in September. The three-month average is 1.6%.
- Food: 2.9%, up from 2.5%. The three-month average is 2.7%.
- Fresh food: 2.6%, unchanged from September.
- Ambient food (longer-life groceries): 3.2%, up from 2.2%.
- Non-food: 1.7%, up from 0.8%. The three-month average is 1.1%.
The BRC says ambient groceries drove the rise in food inflation, although retailers ran promotions on sweets ahead of Halloween. It says non-food inflation reached an almost three-year high, with furniture, flooring and DIY most affected by higher energy and transport costs.
Why prices are rising
The BRC links the rise to rising costs for retailers. Its chief executive, Helen Dickinson, said: "The message to the Chancellor ahead of tomorrow's Budget could not be clearer: act now or prices will keep on rising." The BRC is asking for lower employment costs, for the planned 3.5% business rates increase to be cancelled, and for shops to be removed from the high-value surtax on business rates. These are the BRC's requests, not government policy.
Mike Watkins of NielsenIQ said that, given global supply chain pressures over the past six months, higher inflation across retail was to be expected. He noted that food retailers' price cuts since late summer had delayed some of the impact and said he expects high street retailers to rely more on promotions to drive non-food spending.
The wider picture is consistent with this. The Office for National Statistics reported that Consumer Prices Index inflation rose to 3.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.1% in August. The BRC monitor covers a narrower basket of goods sold in shops, so its figure is lower than CPI, which also includes services such as transport, housing and hospitality. The next ONS CPI release, covering October, is due on 18 November 2026.
What this means for founders
This section is editorial guidance, not financial advice.
- Check your supplier price lists. If you buy ambient food, homeware, furniture or DIY products for resale, these are the categories where the BRC reports the strongest pressure. Ask suppliers about planned increases now rather than at the next invoice.
- Plan promotions with margins in mind. NielsenIQ expects more promotional activity on the high street. If competitors discount, work out the lowest price you can sustain before matching them.
- Look at energy and delivery costs. The BRC points to energy and transport as drivers of non-food prices. Review delivery contracts and energy tariffs, especially any that renew in the next six months.
- Read the Budget documents. Several of the BRC's requests, including business rates, depend on decisions in the Autumn Budget on 28 October. Check what is actually announced before changing prices or plans.
- Explain price changes clearly. If you need to raise prices, give customers notice and a plain reason. Check any contractual notice periods for trade customers.
Frequently asked questions
What is UK shop price inflation in October 2026?
The BRC-NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor shows shop price inflation of 2.1% in October 2026, up from 1.4% in September. Food inflation was 2.9% and non-food inflation was 1.7%.
Why is shop price inflation different from CPI?
The BRC monitor tracks a basket of goods sold in shops, while the ONS Consumer Prices Index covers a wider range of goods and services. CPI was 3.5% in September 2026.
When is the next UK inflation figure published?
The ONS is due to publish CPI inflation for October 2026 on 18 November 2026.
Sources
- British Retail Consortium: Budget must stop rising costs feeding inflation (Shop Price Monitor, 27 October 2026) (reviewed 28 October 2026)
- ONS: Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (reviewed 28 October 2026)